How close are we to nuclear war?
The forecasting community puts the chance of a nuclear weapon being used in anger before 2027 at 2%. That's low, but experts agree the risk is the highest it has been since the Cold War.
Forecasts last updated
Before 2027
2%Nuclear weapon used before 2027. Metaculus, the most reliable near-term figure.
Before 2030
5%Nuclear weapon used before 2030. Metaculus community forecast.
Before 2035
25%Nuclear weapon used before 2035. Risk adds up over longer horizons.
Betting market, frozen
22%Polymarket's last price for 2026, before it pulled the market in March. Likely overstated.
Today's briefing
Risk elevated, no sign of imminent use
Forecasters see a low but elevated chance of nuclear use in the next year. Arms control is at a low point after New START expired in February, and tensions remain high after this year's US strikes on Iran. No nuclear-armed state has signalled imminent use.
Written daily by AI (Claude) from current news and the forecasts below, then published automatically. Sources: Metaculus nuclear detonation forecast.
Every forecast
Chance each event happens by the date shown. Metaculus figures refresh every hour.
| Event | By | Chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any nuclear weapon used (non-test) | Before 2027 | 2% | Metaculus November 3, 2026 |
| Any nuclear detonation in 2026 (market archived) | End of 2026 | 22% | Polymarket March 3, 2026 |
| Any nuclear weapon used (non-test) | Before 2030 | 5% | Metaculus November 3, 2026 |
| Any nuclear weapon used (non-test) | Before 2035 | 25% | Metaculus November 3, 2026 |
| Catastrophe killing 10M+ (superforecasters) | By 2045 | 1% | Forecasting Research Institute October 28, 2024 |
| Catastrophe killing 10M+ (nuclear experts) | By 2045 | 5% | Forecasting Research Institute October 28, 2024 |
| Nuclear weapon used as an act of war | By 2050 | 25% | Metaculus November 3, 2026 |
| Global thermonuclear war | By 2070 | 11% | Metaculus November 3, 2026 |
The clock keeps creeping
Seconds to midnight, set each January by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. It is symbolic, not a probability.
How to read this
Why the numbers differ so much.
Metaculus Hundreds of forecasters with strong track records. The best guide to near-term risk; it moves over weeks, not minutes.
Betting markets Tend to overprice disasters: a bet against the end of the world can't pay out if it happens. Polymarket's figure is frozen since it removed its market.
Expert surveys Cover a bigger event, 10 million or more deaths, over two decades. Experts are consistently more worried than superforecasters.
Who has the bomb
Estimated nuclear warheads, January 2026 (SIPRI Yearbook 2026). Bubble size shows arsenal size.
- 🇷🇺 Russia5,420
- 🇺🇸 United States5,042
- 🇨🇳 China620
- 🇫🇷 France370
- 🇬🇧 United Kingdom225
- 🇮🇳 India190
- 🇵🇰 Pakistan170
- 🇮🇱 Israel90
- 🇰🇵 North Korea60
Where you'd be safest, and most exposed
No place is safe in a large nuclear war. These rankings summarise published research on two things: who could still feed themselves through a nuclear winter, and where the bombs would most likely fall.
Most resilient
Ranked by food self-sufficiency in nuclear-winter models and distance from likely targets.
- Australia
Grows far more food than it needs, mostly wheat, which copes relatively well with a cooler climate. Caveat: its US military ties could make it a target.
Boyd & Wilson 2023; Xia et al. 2022 - New Zealand
Nuclear-free, far from likely targets, and its food exports could feed the population several times over. Weak spot: it imports all its refined fuel.
Boyd & Wilson 2023 - Argentina
A major grain exporter that models find among the least affected by a global famine.
Xia et al. 2022 - Iceland
One of five island nations judged able to keep feeding itself through a nuclear winter.
Boyd & Wilson 2023 - Uruguay
Southern Hemisphere food producer that avoids mass starvation even in the worst modelled war.
Xia et al. 2022 - Paraguay
Large food surplus relative to population, far from any likely target.
Xia et al. 2022 - Brazil
Among the few countries modelled to avoid starvation in the most extreme scenario.
Xia et al. 2022 - Solomon Islands
Can feed itself and depends less on industry, so it would suffer less if global supply chains collapse.
Boyd & Wilson 2023 - Vanuatu
Food self-sufficient Pacific island, far from Northern Hemisphere fallout.
Boyd & Wilson 2023 - Oman
One of the few countries outside the Americas and Australasia modelled to avoid starvation in the worst case.
Xia et al. 2022
Most exposed
Likely targets in a large war, plus the regions modelled to lose most of their food.
- US missile fields (Montana, North Dakota, Wyoming)
Home to US land-based missiles, deliberately placed as a 'nuclear sponge' to draw an attacker's first strikes.
Fast Company; Alex Wellerstein - Washington, D.C.
Seat of US government and military command, a near-certain target in any large war.
Irwin Redlener, Columbia University - Moscow
Russia's political and military command centre.
Capital of a nuclear-armed state - New York City
Largest US city and financial centre, on every expert list of likely city targets.
Irwin Redlener, Columbia University - Beijing
China's capital and command centre, with China's arsenal growing fastest.
Capital of a nuclear-armed state; SIPRI 2026 - London
Capital of a nuclear-armed NATO member.
Capital of a nuclear-armed state - Paris
Capital of a nuclear-armed NATO member.
Capital of a nuclear-armed state - India–Pakistan border region
Delhi, Lahore and Islamabad would be at the centre of any South Asian nuclear war, the scenario studied most often after US–Russia.
Xia et al. 2022 - Korean Peninsula
Seoul and Pyongyang sit next to North Korea's fast-growing arsenal.
SIPRI 2026 - Northern farm belts (Russia, US Midwest, China)
Even far from blasts, food production here could fall by up to 97% in a nuclear winter.
Boyd & Wilson 2023
Close calls
The moments the world came nearest to nuclear war, and the turning points behind today's risk.
- August 6, 1945Hiroshima and Nagasaki
The only time nuclear weapons have been used in war. Both cities destroyed within three days.
- October 27, 1962Cuban Missile Crisis: Black Saturday
A US spy plane is shot down over Cuba and a Soviet submarine, B-59, nearly fires a nuclear torpedo. Widely seen as the closest the world has come.
- September 26, 1983Petrov's false alarm
Soviet satellites report US missiles inbound. Officer Stanislav Petrov judges it a malfunction and doesn't pass it up the chain. He was right.
- November 7, 1983Able Archer 83
A realistic NATO nuclear exercise looks like cover for a real attack to Moscow, which puts nuclear-capable forces on alert.
- January 25, 1995The Norwegian rocket
A research rocket studying the northern lights is read by Russian radar as a Trident missile. Yeltsin's nuclear briefcase is activated, the only known time.
- February 27, 2022Russia's nuclear forces on alert
Days after invading Ukraine, Putin orders nuclear forces to a special state of readiness, reviving fears of escalation.
- February 5, 2026New START expires
The last treaty limiting US and Russian nuclear arsenals ends without a replacement.
- February 28, 2026US strikes on Iran
US airstrikes on Tehran and other Iranian cities push nuclear-risk forecasts and betting markets sharply higher.